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FEBRUARY 14,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET: 

HILLARY HOLDS IN S.C.? – From the New York Post:   WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton’s southern firewall seems intact — for now.  Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 59-40 percent in South Carolina, which has narrowed only slightly in the last month, according to the new CBS Battleground Tracker poll.  The former Secretary of State had retained her popularity among African American voters who support her 73-26 percent, despite a huge loss in New Hampshire last week to Sanders.  Sanders has been increasing his outreach to minorities in upcoming states and is buoyed by his perception among voters as being honest and trustworthy.  The CBS poll is an online poll, where accuracy is a bit wobbly, in my view.  Also, although the South Carolina Republican primary is Saturday, the Democratic primary in the state is a week later, giving Sanders an additional week to make progress.  I don't think Hillary has it put away yet.  The Dems have caucuses in Nevada this coming Saturday.  If Hillary loses there, it could have a negative impact on South Carolina. 

I CAN'T WAIT – From Britain's Independent:   Super skyscrapers, underwater cities and 3D-printed homes will all be a reality in 100 years' time, according to a new report on life in the future.  The SmartThings Future Living Report, which was commissioned by Samsung-owned internet of things firm SmartThings, was created by a group of academics and futurologists who suggest that in a century's time humans will be able to live in 'Earth-scrapers', which will go up to 25 storeys underground.  The academics, which include future architects and urbanists as well as lecturers from the University of Westminster, suggest that 'bubble cities' will be created underwater making the depths habitable for humans.They also believe personal drones will become a staple mode of transport, as well as being used as futuristic “mules” to carry entire homes around the world for holidays.  Those bubble cities sound terrific.  Open the drapes and look out on...water.  And if a window cracks...well, you can't live forever.  I'll take a cottage in a small American town.

SCALIA – As usual, nothing goes well.  The Washington Post is reporting that Justice Antonin Scalia did not die of a heart attack, as originally reported, that he was declared dead by a justice of the peace based on a telephoned description, that the justice of the peace never saw the body, and that Scalia did not receive an autopsy.  It was also reported that Justice Scalia was found with a pillow over his head.  I don't make any claims of special knowledge, but this is outrageous.  Here in New York an autopsy would be required in the case of anyone who doesn't die in a hospital or in the presence of qualified medical personnel, or who dies under suspicious circumstances.  Families can object on religious grounds, but objections can be rejected.  It's being reported that Scalia's family did not want an autopsy, but the public interest is not being served.  The man was revered, however his opinions were controversial, and he died alone, away from home.  I'm uneasy.

February 14,  2016     Permalink   

HE NOTICED – AT 12:48 P.M. ET:  Grand Admiral Kerry has awakened, at least for a day.  Reminds me of "Brigadoon."  From AFP:

MUNICH, Germany — The mass influx of refugees and other migrants into Europe spells a “near existential threat” to the continent, US Secretary of State John Kerry said Saturday.

“We are facing the gravest humanitarian crisis in Europe since World War II,” he said at the Munich Security Conference, which has been dominated by the Syrian conflict that has been driving the mass flight.

“The United States understands the near existential nature of this threat to the politics and fabric of life in Europe,” he told the meeting.

Europe has been deeply split by how to handle the mass influx of people fleeing war-torn Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other countries.

Germany took in 1.1 million refugees last year, while Italy and Greece have been overwhelmed as the main arrival points from the Middle East and Africa.

Sweden and Austria have also taken in large numbers, but many EU members, especially in the east, have been deeply reluctant to open their doors.

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls said Saturday that the view in Paris is “not favourable” to Berlin’s call for a permanent quota system to distribute more refugees across the EU, adding that France had already agreed to take in 30,000 refugees.

COMMENT:  It is widely reported, and not disputed, that the refugee stream contains an inordinate number of fighting-age men.  That's very unusual in refugee streams, which are usually made up mostly of women and children. 

The current crisis is another nail in the coffin of Europe.  Low birth rates in native populations, nanny-state mentalities, dominance by left-wing elites, are all conspiring to reduce Europe's status, its culture, and its future.  I'm not sure it can be stopped.  And Obama is probably cheering on the decadence.

The future is in Asia, not Europe.

February 14, 2016       Permalink

THE DISGRACEFUL TRUMP – AT 11:56 A.M. ET:   I realize there are honorable Trump supporters among our very high-level readership, but I thought Trump's behavior last night was disgraceful.

Among other wild statements, Trump claimed 1) President George W. Bush was responsible for 9-11 because it happened while he was president, and 2) Bush lied to get us into the Iraq war by claiming there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

Take the first.  It reminds me of the old conspiracy theories holding that FDR knew about the attack on Pearl Harbor beforehand and failed to prevent it.  We know that 9-11 was planned, and the training of the hijackers begun, long before George W. Bush became president.  While there were some warnings in the early months of the Bush administration of a possible attack on the United States, they were non-specific.  General warnings are issued all the time.  There is no evidence that Bush could have prevented 9-11.

The second charge is even more outrageous, and is false.  Two bi-partisan Congressional committees concluded that Bush never lied to get us into war.  In fact, he used the same intelligence information that Clinton had used.  Further, Saddam Hussein, Iraq's leader, had already employed WMD in Iraq's war against Iran. 

The inspector reports said that no WMD stockpiles had been found in Iraq.  But the reports also said that WMD programs were intact and were ready to be re-started, a finding never given much prominence by the anti-Obama press.  And indeed, we really don't know if WMD stockpiles had simply not been discovered, and had been well hidden.

Trump's comments were grossly irresponsible.  We are talking about war and peace, life and death, not about the cost of gold fixtures in a new casino. 

February 14, 2016       Permalink

THE NEXT JUSTICE – AT 11:26 A.M. ET:  The battle is already on.  Will Obama get to nominate a justice for the Supreme Court to replace Antonin Scalia, or will he defer to the next president?

He's pretty much given the answer.  He will nominate in due course.  Of course he will.  He would never defer.

Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, says he will not permit a nomination to be taken up until after the next president is chosen.  Good.  I hope he sticks to it, but I fear that some weak Republicans may be peeled off, especially if they represent swing states and are up for re-election in November.

Also, there is now talk that Obama can make a recess appointment.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has vowed not to confirm a successor to the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, but some Republicans worry that President Obama could install a replacement anyway.

"We're in recess, so Obama can, in theory, appoint someone," a senior GOP aide told the Washington Examiner. "He could appoint [Vice President Joe] Biden tonight if he wanted to."

Obama wouldn't be the first president to use a recess appointment to place a justice on the high court. There are have been 12 justices appointed to the Supreme Court while the Senate was in recess. Dwight Eisenhower was the last president to use that power — he did so three times, according to Scotusblog.

And...

Obama used the recess power aggressively in the past. In January of 2012, he appointed three people to the National Labor Relations Board when the Senate was not officially in recess due to pro forma sessions. In 2014, the Supreme Court ruled 9-0 in NLRB v. Noel Canning that those appointments are unconstitutional because the Senate, by its own rules, was not in session at the time the appointments were made.

But that's not the case now. The Senate is scheduled to be in recess until Feb. 22, giving Obama nine days to mull the idea. If Obama were to pursue that route, Republicans likely would argue that the Senate was out of session for too short a time for Obama to take advantage of the recess appointment power. But the Supreme Court has never said exactly how long a recess must be for the president to make recess appointments.

"It's a live threat," the aide said.

COMMENT:  McConnell should call the Senate back into session immediately, and the Senate should remain in session through the end of its term next January.  I would not put it past Obama to make a recess appointment tonight.

As I understand it, a recess appointment would only last until the Supreme Court goes out of session.  It would still have to be confirmed by the Senate to be permanent.

February 14,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 13,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE JUSTICE – The body isn't cold yet, but the politics have begun.  President Obama, despite pleas from Republicans to delay nominating a replacement until the election is over, says he will nominate one in due course, without giving a deadline.  You may be sure he'll pick one who will stir up as much trouble as possible, or provide some political cover for Obama's legacy.  Don't be surprised if Obama picks Attorney General Loretta Lynch.  That would take her out of the chain of command in regard to the Hillary FBI probe, if that's what Obama wants.  That probe is still hovering over the election, and may turn out to be decisive.

THE REACTION – The reaction to Antonin Scalia's death is one of the deepest and most heartfelt responses to the death of a Supreme Court justice in my memory.  While liberals universally opposed his judicial opinions, the fair-minded ones praised his personal qualities, his scholarship, and his brilliant writing.  Obviously, the poor-taste left-wing crowd was out with snide remarks, but the sheer force of Scalia's presence and personality overwhelmed any nastiness.   In the next few days there will be many articles about Justice Scalia.  He represented a dying breed, a true public intellectual, widely read and capable of clear, understandable English.

THE DEBATE – The Republicans debated tonight in South Carolina, which holds its GOP primary next Saturday.  It was the most combative debate thus far, with some truly ugly and divisive moments.  I don't think there was any clear winner.  Marco Rubio erased the bad impression left by his robot-like performance in the New Hampshire debate, and was just fine.  So were all the others...except Donald Trump.  He was, at times, so vicious and demeaning that I suspect he repelled a good part of the audience.  He got booed often, but that could be because the house was packed with regular party Republicans.  Right now Trump is leading in the South Carolina polls.  Don't be surprised if those polls change in a day or so due to the debate.  On balance, I don't think next Saturday's primary will change much, unless Trump runs away with it.  Although Ben Carson is polling very low, no candidate has any particular incentive to pull out at this time.  But there still is no consensus candidate to oppose Trump.  This could go all the way to the convention.

February 13, 2016       Permalink

BULLETIN:   ASSOCIATE JUSTICE ANTONIN SCALIA OF THE UNITED STATES SUPREME COURT HAS DIED – AT 5:43 P.M. ET: 

We have lost a giant defender of freedom.  The justice was the intellectual leader of the Court's conservatives.

Our side has won many of the most important cases on 5-4 votes. With Scalia gone,
the Court will operate with eight justices until a new one is nominated by the president
and confirmed by the Senate. Confirmation requires a simple majority.

Now is the time for Republicans to show some backbone. It must be made very clear
to Obama that the Senate will not confirm another Sotomayor or Kagan, two ideological
liberals. But I don’t know if that backbone exists. The president can, of course, consult with
the Senate on whom to appoint, but democracy is not Obama’s strong suit.

Or, the Senate can delay, and refuse to take up a presidential appointment until after
the November election. That would be wise.

This death was not anticipated. The ghostlike Justice Ruth was expected to unburden us
first. This is a pivotal moment in modern American history.

A personal note:

I heard Justice Scalia at Gatestone Institute about two years ago.  He was a wise and very warm man,
completely accessible, and lacking any pomp or aloofness.  He was known as a man who could be close friends with someone with whom he completely disagreed.  Indeed, he and liberal Justice Ruth Guinsburg were the closest of friends.  They and their families enjoyed opera together. 

Justice Scalia will be remembered as one of the great Supreme Court justices.

February 13, 2016       Permalink

A WARNING – AT 12:52 P.M. ET:   As we fight an election, there are people planning very bad things.  A new warning comes from the prime minister of France, and another from the Russian prime minster.   From London's Express:

Manuel Valls said he wanted to be honest with the public and tell them to expect more attacks like the ones carried out by the terror group, also known as Daesh, in France in 2015.

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference in Germany on Saturday he said: "We are at war with terrorism; we need to be sincere with our people and we need to tell them there will be other attacks, major attacks - this is something we know for sure."

Mr Valls told a group top defense officials and diplomats that after the attacks in France the world had "entered a new era".

Russian prime minister Dimitry Medvedev told the conference there is a link between the terrorist threat and the influx of migrants to Europe.

He said: "Under (the) disguise of refugees, hundreds and thousands of extremists are infiltrating other countries.

"Sometimes these are people with different culture who would like to get benefits and do nothing. There is a real threat of the destruction of a single economic space followed by cultural space and even the very European identity."

COMMENT:  You don't usually hear Russians talking that way.  With America failing to lead, other nations are now issuing the alerts that we should be issuing.  And we still have 11 months to go of one of the most reckless and irresponsible presidencies in our history.  There is no guarantee that the president who succeeds Obama will be any better.  Indeed, matters could get worse if a Democrat is elected. 

February 13, 2016       Permalink

AND A NUDGE IN THE OTHER PARTY – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 11:31 A.M. ET:  Early polls indicate that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina primary next week, proving that he can win outside his natural constituencies in the north.

Early polls also show that Trump will be beaten by the Democratic nominee, even if it's Bernie Sanders.

The Republicans are in bad shape, an angry party willing, apparently, to make anger their platform.   I respect those who believe Trump is a talented, capable man.  He is.  But I just don't think he can go the distance.  I also don't think he's really a conservative.  Bill Kristol, of Weekly Standard, has the same concerns.  In our quote of the day he assesses the case against Trump.   

Trump can be beaten. Will he be? His opponents have focused more criticism on each other than on him, and some will continue along this path as they move on to South Carolina. Last year's overconfidence in the political class that Trump would naturally fade (and we plead guilty to this misjudgment) has mutated among some into a kind of fatalism that Trump can't be stopped.

This in turn provides an excuse for accommodation to and appeasement of him. Power attracts. Winning works. People like to be on the winning side. Politicians yearn to be on the winning side. Lobbyists make a living by being on the winning side. Donors feel satisfaction from being on the winning side. Pundits want to show they "get it" by embracing the winning side. As Trump himself understands, no one wants to be a "loser."

Well, we stand unapologetically with the New Hampshire losers. They're not perfect. Ted Cruz could appear more appealing and Marco Rubio more intimidating. John Kasich could seem less of a mushy moderate and Jeb Bush less of a blast from the past. But none is an embarrassment. We hope one or more of them defeats Trump in South Carolina and beyond. We hope for this not so we can be on the winning side, but because we're convinced that resisting the blandishments of Donald Trump is right for the party and the country.

COMMENT:  Okay, one can agree or disagree.  The Republican Party is tearing itself apart, forming, as the old expression goes, a circular firing squad.  Chris Christie's attack on Marco Rubio during the last debate was disgraceful and did enormous damage to a good man who could actually win in November.

If Trump is nominated, I'd support him.  But I don't think he's the best we can do, and I fear he will lead us to defeat.  If Hillary is the candidate, she'll destroy him in debate.  If Bernie is the candidate, he'll appear as your decent old uncle compared to the gruff New York mogul.  (Bernie, like most socialists, comes off as the gift giver.  He is not a gift giver.  He's a thief.)

February 13, 2016        Permalink

A SLIGHT NUDGE – AT 11:08 A.M. ET:  One of Obama's former intelligence officials is urging Hillary Clinton to get out of the presidential race.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) President Barack Obama's former top military intelligence official said Hillary Clinton should pull out of the presidential race while the FBI investigate her use of a private email server for official government communication while secretary of state.

Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, the retired chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency, made the call in an interview with Jake Tapper on "The Lead."

"If it were me, I would have been out the door and probably in jail," said Flynn, who decried what he said was a "lack of accountability, frankly, in a person who should have been much more responsible in her actions as the secretary of state of the United States of America."

Clinton campaign spokesman Brian Fallon later told Tapper the general's suggestion was "just silly" and pointed to similar FBI probes of former Secretary of State Colin Powell and of aides to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

"In both of those two cases, you now have the same agency looking at their emails, personal emails, and saying that there is information that in retrospect they think should be treated as classified," Fallon said. "The exact same situation playing out in the two previous secretaries before Secretary Clinton. So I think that tells you everything about the relative seriousness of this."

When pressed by CNN, Flynn said, "I don't have any personal evidence" that Clinton or one of her staffers took material off a classified server and put it on an unclassified server.

COMMENT:  The bottom line here is that Clinton is a terrible candidate, always enveloped in one scandal or the other, and feeling that the country "owed" her the presidency.

But now the problem:  If not Clinton, who?  I don't think Americans begin to understand the implications of a Bernie Sanders presidency.  And yes, I do believe Sanders can be elected.  The Republican Party is so confused, the press so biased, that a Sanders presidency would make Obama's look like a minor opening act. 

A Clinton presidency would be awful, and dishonest.  But look at what Sanders believes.  His presidency could be fatal.

February 13,  2016     Permalink